(Warmup)
Ladies and Gentlemen, children of proper age, welcome to this special (for now) edition of YAMMA. I am currently on fall break, and bored as heck, so I decided that I would write a preview of the upcoming UFC event. If I like what happens, I might decide to make this a common feature. Your feedback helps as well, so leave a comment if you like what you see, or hate it and just want to tear my self-worth to shreds. Although you won't get very much out of it, it's already kinda torn up.
(Whispers)
Just in case I get a little bit jumpy and publish a regular YAMMA column, I might as well give this a snappy name that ties in with the whole "Yelling About MMA" gimmick. Which is what YAMMA stands for, in case you didn't know. Anyway, I'll be going through both the undercard and maincard, adding my own secret 11 herbs and spices to each fight, along with betting lines.
All betting lines are from Bodog.com. For explanation of how the lines work, click
here
The headers go like this:
Fighter A (Line) (MMA record, UFC record) vs. Fighter B (Line) (MMA record, UFC record)
Records are as shown: (Wins-losses-draws, no contests)
UFC 104:
Undercard:
* Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami (-260) (23-4, 7-1 UFC) vs. Chael Sonnen (+200) (23-10, 2-3 UFC)
Yushin Okami has perennially been in the top tier of the middleweight division, and was even in a No. 1 Contenders match against
Rich "Ace" Franklin, which he lost via unanimous decision. His record includes an oh-so-rare (disqualification) victory over the current middleweight champion,
Anderson Silva, and was actually scheduled for a rematch with the champ until a broken hand forced him to pull out.
On the other hand,
Chael Sonnen is a refugee from WEC's abolished middleweight division, his last fight in which was with then-champion
Paulo Fihlo, who weighed in several pounds over the weight limit. This inability to make the 185 lb. limit forced the match to be changed to a non-title bout, which Sonnen then dominated for all three rounds, obtaining the W.
I believe that, while Sonnen is considered by many to be the last WEC middleweight champion, he hasn't shown that he can make it in the UFC. Okami has been *this* close to the golden ring, only to be shoved down the mountain time and time again, and he just feels hungrier to me than Chael. But this fight is most likely a do or die situation for Sonnen, who has been cut from the UFC before and is most likely on his way out if he loses yet again. Overall, I think the Okami just has the skills and will take the victory.
Winner: Yushin Okami via Unanimous Decision.
* Middleweight bout: Rob Kimmons (-155)(22-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Jorge Rivera (+125)(16-7, 3-2 UFC)
Rob Kimmons might take a few votes in the "Most Awesome Nickname" category, with his moniker being "The Rosedale Reaper". Nicknames aside, Kimmons is a submissions beast, with 14 of his wins coming via submission. At the UFN I attended in Nashville, Tennessee, he earned SOTN by making
Joe Vedepo go to sleep with a nice rear naked choke.
Jorge Rivera also possesses a sweet handle, going by "El Conquistador". He also appeared on the very same UFN, earning a close split decision win over
Nissen Osterneck.
While this fight may not have a the ramifications the previous fight might have, this classic "submissions vs. striking" bout has the potential to rock the house. Neither man is either a heavy favorite r underdog, but my vote here goes to the 28 year-old Kimmons, who has a nine year advantage over the 37 year old Rivera.
Winner: Kimmons via submission
* Light Heavyweight bout: Razak Al-Hassan (-105)(7-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (-125)(7-2 with 1 NC, 0-1 UFC)
Both men in this fight have lost their respective debuts in the UFC, so it's most likely a must win situation for Al-Hassan and Kingsbury. In his debut,
Razak Al-Hassan was the victim of a nasty armbar that dislocated his elbow, and I personally believed at the time that his arm was broken. It was that nasty.
Our other fighter,
Kyle Kingsbury, is on a two fight losing streak, and he is definitely in more danger of being cut if he loses. Kingsbury was also a member of TUF during the season of
Frank Mir and
Minotauro Nogueira, in which he lost his opening match via decision.
Al-Hassan has shown a propensity for BJJ, owning 5 wins via submission, but has never been able to truly stop an opponent with standup. His lone TKO win came via doctor stoppage, so Kingsbury has the advantage on standup with his Muy Thai ability. Overall, Kingsbury is a slight favorite in this fight, but I personally think that Razak takes this to the ground, neutralizes Kingsbury's wrestling game, and sinks in a submission for the W.
Winner: Razak Al-Hassan via submission.
* Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve (+190)(17-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Chase Gormley (-250)(6-0, 0-0 UFC)
Chase Gormley is currently on a tear, and is one of the new generation of heavyweights coming up from wrestling. This boy is 6' 3", 270 pounds, and is hungry for competition. Before Affliction folded up, he was slated to fight Ben Rothwell (who is facing contender Cain Velasquez on this same card), which might have determined who was in line to fight Fedor Emelianenko for the WAMMA (World Association of Mixed Martial Arts) Heavyweight title.
Stefan Struve's star does not shine nearly as bright as Gormley's, although his most recent loss to Junior Dos Santos is nothing to be ashamed of. But his next victory over Denis Stojnic (Stoy-nick) means nothing, since Cain Velasquez absolutely destroyed Stojnic in the fight preceding Struve, and Stojnic is no longer in the UFC.
Gormley will definitely have the wrestling advantage on the ground, but Struve is so tall that he might be able to keep him at bay. For those of you who aren't in the know, Struve's nickname as "The Skyscraper" is well deserved, seeing as he stands at over 6' 11" tall. If Stefan can keep it standing and stuff Gormley's takedowns, he should be able to pull out the victory. However, is Gormley gets Struve on the ground, it'll be all over except for the crying. I'm thinking that's exactly what will happen, so:
Winner: Chase Gormley via TKO
The following fights are on the undercard, but will be broadcast on Spike TV directly before UFC 104, at 9 PM eastern.
* Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader (-450)(9-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)(11-3-2, 3-2 UFC)
Ah,
Ryan Bader. The man who has some of the most awesome walkout music in all of the UFC, a TUF winner, and one of my favorite fighters to boot (he's on the banner, if you haven't looked), Bader is just a beast. I mean, his nickname is "Darth". "Darth" Bader, how much more awesome can you get? The answer is, not much, for those of you playing at home. In his last fight against
Carmelo Marerro,
Bader suffered an injury
which kept him out for several months.
Eric Schafer is on his second go-around in the UFC, having lost to
Michael Bisping and
Stephan Bonnar before being cut. He fought his way back in, and owns wins over
Houston Alexander and
Antonio Mendes. Schafer is a humongous underdog in this fight, and the line on this fight is tied for second along with the main event for lopsidedness.
Bader here is widely regarded as the favorite, and this D1 wrestler from Arizona State should be able to neutralize any BJJ that Schafer can come up with, thanks to his training partenr
Thales Leites. Schafer should have the advantage on the standup, as Bader has shown that he is not as comfortable on his fight as he is on the ground, so Schafer should try to keep this fight standing. Overall, Bader is most likely going to be unstoppable in this fight, and will show that he deserves a main card spot.
Winner: Ryan Bader via TKO
* Heavyweight bout: Patrick Barry (+110)(4-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Antoni Hardonk (-140)(8-5, 4-3 UFC)
Aspirations are high for
Patrick Barry in the UFC. A former K-1 kickboxer, he debuted on the annual year-end card with a TKO victory over
Dan Evenson, but his momentum was derailed after a submission loss to
Tim Hague. Now, Barry looks to get back on the path to current heavyweight champion
Brock Lesnar with a win over the UFC vet
Antoni Hardonk.
Hardonk is a longtime UFC fighter, with half of his fights coming in the Octagon. Hardonk most recently suffered defeat at the hands of
Cheick Kongo on the UFC 97 card (you know, that one where
Anderson Silva had a dance party with
Thales Leites).
Both men here are kickboxers, so if you want to see fireworks, this is one where you want to tune in on. Antoni Hardonk has shown that he's not able to defeat the top tier talent, while Barry is still a relative novice to MMA. My belief here is that the oddsmakers are wrong on this one, with Patrick Barry taking it to Hardonk over three rounds.
Winner: Patrick Barry via Unanimous decision.
Main Card
* Welterweight bout: Anthony Johnson (-500)(7-2, 4-2 UFC) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+325)(11-3, 2-1 UFC)
While it may seem that
Anthony Johnson has a pretty good record on paper, you can't just look at the history books to see what's real. His second loss of his career came against
Kevin Burns, who won the fight after an illegal eye poke allowed him to gain the TKO victory. A subsequent rematch against Burns showed who should have truly won that fight, after Johnson KO'd Burns with a vicious head kick. "Rumble" Johnson has shown that he has the skills to be a welterweight contender, and the line shows that everyone else believes so as well. However,
Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a rather good fighter as well, with his only loss in his last 11 fights coming from Josh Koscheck.
You don't really need to say much more about this fight. The line has it perfectly in my opinion, and I give very little hope to Yoshida. He *might* survive till a decision is rendered, but probably not. Johnson takes it.
Winner: Anthony "Rumble" Johnson via KO.
* Lightweight bout: Spencer Fisher (+210)(23-4, 8-3 UFC) vs. Joe Stevenson (-270)(30-10, 7-4 UFC)
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson is a TUF winner, 2 time winner of FOTN, and another contender for the lightweight title. However, he's recently fallen on hard times and really needs to get a win streak going in order to gain momentum. His most recent win over
Nate Diaz broke a 2 fight losing streak (with losses to
Diego Sanchez and
Kenny Florian), but he seems to be another gatekeeper for the lightweight division.
Spencer Fisher is a longtime UFC veteran as well, with a FOTN honors to his name due to his war with
Sam Stout. He's currently riding a 3 fight win streak, and needs to keep his momentum up.
Overall, Stevenson is a better equipped fighter. Fisher has a reputation as a brawler, while Stevenson has more highly refined ground game. If this fight goes to the ground, Joe "Daddy" will win it, hands down. Standing up, it's more up in the air, but Spencer Fisher just doesn't seem to me to have the juice needed to beat Joe. Stevenson wants it more, and will pull it out with a nice submission.
Winner: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson via submission.
* Lightweight bout: Josh Neer (+105)(25-8-1, 4-5 UFC) vs. Gleison Tibau (-135)(19-6, 5-4 UFC)
Josh Neer is again one of those people that you need to look past the record in order to see the true story. His last lost against
Kurt Pellegrino was a controversial decision, in which Neer expressed frustration in the third round that Pellegrino wasn't trying to do anything. Josh "The Dentist" Neer is
currently on his third go-round in the UFC, and a loss here might send him packing for the third time.
Gleison Tibau was originally supposed to face off against former lightweight champ
Sean Sherk
here, but an injury forced him to withdraw, causing Neer to take Sherk's place. Tibau most recently lost to
Melvin Guillard at the TUF 9 Finale after defeating
Jeremy Stephens and
Rich Clementi.
You know how there are those people you just have to root for, because you just feel bad for them? Neer is that way for me. He's been bounced out of the UFC twice already, and the lines are against him here again in this fight. His wrestling might be able to take Tibau's BJJ out of the equation, and his proficiency in Muy Thai will give him an advantage on the feet. I don't really feel strongly about either of these fighters, so I'll just go with the underdog here.
Winner: Josh Neer by unanimous decision.
* Heavyweight bout: Ben Rothwell (+275)(30-6, 0-0 UFC) vs. Cain Velasquez (-350)(6-0, 4-0 UFC)
This bout could very well determine the next No. 1 Contender for the heavyweight title. Cain was slated to fight current No. 1 Contender
Shane Carwin, but circumstances dictated that
Brock Lesnar would face Carwin instead. Cain is a massive beast, is yet another D1 wrestler from Arizona State, and is just blossoming on the heavyweight scene after a victory over
Cheick Kongo (Kongo again, man this guy is like the
Keith Jardine of the heavyweight division. For those of you who just had that joke cruise over your head at 35,000 feet, Keith Jardine is seen as a gatekeeper, one who separates the top level from the rest.)
Ben Rothwell is nothing to sniff at either, with an impressive 30-6 record and his only loss in his last 15 fights coming from
Andrei Arlovski, a former UFC heavyweight champ. He was thought to be in the running for a shot at Fedor, but Affliction's folding put an end to that talk.
This will be either FOTN or the worst fight on the card, mark my words. There is potential for a great show of wrestling from both men, but also it could just be a lay-and-pray fest. Either way, the odds are unbelievable for this fight. You might as well put some money on Rothwell, because those are fantastic odds for a fighter of his caliber. That's not to say that I don't think Cain won't win, but you can definitely break even if you play your bets right. Overall, I think Velasquez is just too much of a beast, even though he's shown he needs to work on his submission technique.
Winner: Cain Velasquez via Unanimous Decision
* Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida (Champion) (-450)(15-0, 7-0 UFC) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (+300)(18-3, 2-1 UFC)
Finally, after typing all of these out, we reach the the main event. My thoughts when this match was announced went like this: "Wow, why is
"Shogun" Rua getting a title shot already? They must have already booked everyone else." But, as I did research on him, I found out that an argument for his title shot can be made. While it may not be as great as an accomplishment as before to defeat
Chuck Liddell, it still shows what "Shogun" can do in the cage. He was highly feared in Pride, and was the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix Tournament Champion (Note: In Pride, the middleweight division was held at a weight of 205 lbs.). He has had some issues in the past, like other Pride fighters, adapting to the rule changes of the UFC, but it seemed that all issues had been resolved after his KO of Liddell.
Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida has what few fighters can claim today, a double digit undefeated record. Opponents he has beaten are a laundry list of "who's who" in the UFC, with names such as
B.J. Penn,
Tito Ortiz,
Rich Franklin,
Stephan Bonnar,
Soukoudjou, and, most recently for the Light Heavyweight strap, Rashad Evans. His style is highly unorthodox, and even the vaunted
Greg Jackson (Evans's coach at Team Jackson) couldn't come up with a game plan to stop him. For a while, I believed that he was a boring fighter, and every time he was described as "highly technical", I would remark, "Yeah, it means he runs away." But his fights against
Thiago Silva and Rashad showed just how deadly he can be. He has a black belt in BJJ as well, making him a very well rounded fighter. This fight could determine if it truly is the age of "The Dragon", as many sportswriters has dubbed it.
Overall, Rua is a huge underdog. We know it, Machida knows it, and most importantly, Rua knows it. An article by Derek Bolander (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/mma/10/20/shogun/index.html) had a quote by Rua that stated "I even like being the underdog. This way I feel I have much less pressure and it's the other guy's obligation to beat me. I feel like I have only the obligation to do my best and I have much more to gain than I have to lose". It's obvious that he's able to deal with his moniker as the underdog, and I think that Rua will shock the world at UFC 104. Nobody is untouchable, and "Shogun" will prove that tomorrow night.
Winner: Maricio "Shogun" Rua by KO.
(Closing Thoughts)
Well that's a wrap. It took a while, but it was a nice way to spend an afternoon. It was either this or watch MTV, and we all know that I'd rather kill myself than see if Tila Tequila can find her true love. As always, comments are appreciated, vote in the poll on the side, and you can always follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/Evan_C. Anyway, like I always say
Peace out, and rock on.
-Evan